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Analyze the case “US Intelligence Failure on Iraq WMD Program”.
Your judgment should be based upon arguments that are both factual and logical and should demonstrate your understanding of the key concepts Bayes’ rule, Bayesian Theory and Bayesian Network. Your analysis should address the following questions:
1. What type of decision-making did the case call for (i.e., risk assessment, prediction/forecasting, classification, hypothesis testing)?
2. What are the best practices for this type of decision-making?
3. What went wrong? Discuss the thinking errors that led to the poor outcome. There may be several thinking errors that occurred. If so, how did they interact to lead to the poor outcome? Be careful that you do not succumb to hindsight bias. Discuss how to avoid hindsight bias in this case.
4. Create a counterfactual. What would have happened if best practices had been used? Would this have produced a different outcome? How so?
5. What remaining questions need to be answered or dilemmas need to be resolved to get a better understanding of the dynamics in this case? What debates exist about this case?
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Write My Essay For MeSummarize the conclusions
Describe the lessons learned from this case. What recommendations would you make to intelligence analysts professionals on the basis of these lessons?
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